Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator
Will your retirement savings actually last? Run 1,000 simulations to find out. Account for market volatility, not just average returns.
Free. No signup required.
Why Monte Carlo Simulation?
Most retirement calculators lie to you. They assume you will get exactly 7% returns every single year. That has never happened in the history of the stock market.
Real returns are volatile. Some years you get +30%, others you lose -20%. The sequence of those returns matters enormously - especially in early retirement when your portfolio is largest.
Randomized Returns
Each simulation uses different random returns, reflecting real market unpredictability.
Sequence Risk
Captures the danger of poor returns early in retirement that can devastate portfolios.
Probability-Based
Instead of one answer, you get a success rate based on thousands of scenarios.
How It Works
Enter Your Numbers
Input your portfolio value, planned annual withdrawal, retirement length, and stock/bond allocation.
Run 1,000 Simulations
Each simulation generates random market returns for every year of your retirement, based on historical distributions.
See Your Success Rate
Find out what percentage of simulations resulted in your money lasting the full retirement period.
Adjust and Retest
If your success rate is too low, try reducing withdrawals, increasing savings, or adjusting your allocation.
Understanding Your Results
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Safe Withdrawal Rate Info
Learn about the 4% rule and how to choose your withdrawal rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Monte Carlo simulation for retirement?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of hypothetical retirement scenarios using randomized market returns. Instead of assuming a fixed 7% return every year, it models real-world volatility to estimate the probability your money will last through retirement.
Why is Monte Carlo better than a regular retirement calculator?
Regular calculators assume steady returns (like 7% every year). In reality, markets are volatile - you might get -15% one year and +25% the next. Monte Carlo simulations account for this randomness and the sequence of returns risk, giving you a more realistic picture.
What is a good success rate in Monte Carlo simulation?
Most financial planners recommend a success rate of 85-95%. Above 95% means your plan is very conservative and you might be able to spend more. Below 80% suggests significant risk of running out of money.
What is sequence of returns risk?
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that poor market returns early in retirement can permanently damage your portfolio. Even if average returns are normal over 30 years, a bad first few years while you're withdrawing can mean you run out of money.
How many simulations should I run?
Our calculator runs 1,000 simulations, which provides statistically meaningful results. Professional tools often use 10,000+, but 1,000 is sufficient to identify major risks in your plan.
What assumptions does the simulator use?
The simulator uses historical return distributions: stocks average 10.5% with 18% standard deviation, bonds 5% with 6% standard deviation, inflation 3% with 1.5% standard deviation. Returns are randomized each year within these parameters.
Plan with confidence
Don't rely on average returns. Test your retirement plan against real market volatility.
Run Your SimulationSources
- [1]Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable(1998)
- [2]Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data(1994)
- [3]Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills
- [4]Safe Withdrawal Rate Series
- [5]Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering(2003)
Not financial advice. This calculator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, or investment advice. Results are estimates based on the inputs you provide and historical data. Consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized guidance. Read our editorial guidelines.